Sunday, May 3, 2020

Testing,We Need Antibody Testing.

Mark Twain is Quoted as saying there are three kinds of lies. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. I wonder how to interpret the information that I have read. As of the date of writing this post, there have been 140,000 people tested in this state and 12,000 confirmed cases. There are 432 deaths attributed to the virus. Of these 12,000 confirmed cases, how many are still contagious? There are 10,500,000 citizens of this state. The math says one out of every 875 people have had the virus. I don't encounter 900 different people in any given month, so not so bad.

Eight and a half percent of those tested were positive. But is there a bias in that number. If it were representative of the population at large then 875,000 people have had the virus and that would be about one in twelve people. I do encounter twelve different people every day. Not so good. But because there are so few confirmed cases in the west, I think the odds of running into someone with Corona are about 900 to 1. But I wish I knew for sure.

We really need wide spread antibody test to make better decisions.

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